Hollywood Contenders: New Oscar Predictions for August

My how time flies! Suddenly, we’ve come to the final set of new predictions before the festival season arrives. Yes, next time I unleash new predictions for the Academy Awards it’ll be September, with festivals and campaigns in full swing. I’ll also be unveiling my first set of Golden Globe picks then, but first thing first. We’ve got the big one to discuss today, and plenty has happened since my previous update. There’s some controversy brewing, titles delayed into 2017, and further evidence that we’ll have at least one late breaking 2016 entry into the race. Let’s get to it and find out what I’ve settled on this time around…

What you’ll see below is some across the board tinkering with my Oscar nomination guesses, including one big removal of a previously huge contender from the major categories. That would be The Birth of a Nation, which is the least important aspect of Nate Parker’s current issues. I have a hunch that Fox Searchlight delays the film until next year, just to not have to deal with negative chatter, so this time around I’ve yanked it across the board. I may very well have it back next month, but for the moment, it’s a 2017 title in my eyes. On the flip side, more word has come out that Ben Affleck’s Live by Night is likely to be a 2016 contender, so it continues to show up in a number of categories here. You’ll see everything momentarily though, so enough talk!

Here now are my up to date Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Manchester by the Sea
5. Loving
6. Live By Night
7. Lion
8. 20th Century Women
9. Nocturnal Animals
10. Passengers

Next in line: 11. Fences 12. Arrival 13. Miss Sloane 14. Jackie 15. Sully 16. The Light Between Oceans 17. The Founder 18. The Lost City of Z 19. Allied 20. Hell or High Water 21. Café Society 22. A United Kingdom 23. Thank You for Your Service 24. Collateral Beauty 25. Snowden

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
3, Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Martin Scorsese – Silence
5. Ben Affleck – Live by Night

Next in line: 6. Jeff Nichols – Loving 7. Mike Mills – 20th Century Women 8. Morten Tyldum – Passengers 9. Tom Ford – Nocturnal Animals 10. Denzel Washington – Fences

BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Ryan Gosling – La La Land (or The Nice Guys)
3. Michael Keaton – The Founder
4. Ben Affleck – Live by Night
5. Chris Pratt – Passengers

Next in line: 6. Tom Hanks – Sully 7. Joel Edgerton – Loving 8. Andrew Garfield – Silence 9. Will Smith – Collateral Beauty 10. Miles Teller – Bleed for This (or Thank You for Your Service)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Emma Stone – La La Land
2. Amy Adams – Nocturnal Animals (or Arrival)
3. Ruth Negga – Loving
4. Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
5. Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers

Next in line: 6. Viola Davis – Fences 7. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins 8. Natalie Portman – Jackie 9. Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane 10. Rosamund Pike – A United Kingdom

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Liam Neeson – Silence
2. Steve Martin – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Kyle Chandler – Manchester by the Sea
4. Oscar Isaac – The Promise
5. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

Next in line: 6. Jeremy Renner – Arrival 7. Adam Driver – Silence 8. Aaron Eckhart – Bleed for This (or Sully) 9. Billy Crudup – 20th Century Women 10. Glen Powell – Everybody Wants Some

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (or Café Society)
2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
3. Elle Fanning – Live by Night (or 20th Century Women)
4. Rachel Weisz – The Light Between Oceans
5. Nicole Kidman – Lion

Next in line: 6. Naomi Harris – Collateral Beauty 7. Rebecca Ferguson – The Girl on the Train 8. Laura Dern – The Founder 9. Laura Linney – Sully 10. Gretchen Mol – Manchester by the Sea

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Loving
4. Passengers
5. 20th Century Women

Next in line: 6. Café Society 7. The Lobster 8. Miss Sloane 9. Hell or High Water 10 The Nice Guys

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
2. Silence
3. Nocturnal Animals
4. Live by Night
5. The Light Between Oceans

Next in line: 6. Fences 7. Miss Sloane 8. The Lost City of Z 9. Arrival 10. Thank You for Your Service

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. April and the Extraordinary World
5. Sausage Party

Next in line: 6. Finding Dory 7. The Red Turtle 8. The Secret Life of Pets 9. The Little Prince 10. Kung Fu Panda 3

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Silence
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. La La Land
5. Live by Night

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Silence
2. La La Land
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Live by Night
5. Arrival

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Silence
2. La La Land
3. Alice Through the Looking Glass
4. Live by Night
5. Rules Don’t Apply

BEST FILM EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Silence
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Live by Night

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Suicide Squad
2. Alice Through the Looking Glass
3. Star Trek Beyond

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Jason Bourne
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Jason Bourne
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. Deadpool

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. The BFG
3. Captain America: Civil War
4. The Jungle Book
5. Arrival

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Arrival
2. The Light Between Oceans
3. Silence
4. Live by Night
5. Loving

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. La La Land
2. Sing Street
3. Moana
4. Sausage Party
5. Zootopia

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. The 13th
2. Weiner
3. OJ: Made in America
4. Life, Animated
5. Voyage of Time

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Toni Erdmann
2. Junction 48
3. The Salesman
4. Graduation
5. It’s Only the End of the World

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

Stay tuned for another update to these early Oscar predictions sometime over the course of the next month, right around the start of the fall festival season!